Magazine: Fall 2013 Research Feature
By Fredrik Hacklin, Boris Battistini and Georg von Krogh
As industries converge and seemingly unrelated businesses
suddenly become rivals, managers must understand the new challenges and the
long-term implications.
In the relentless evolution of technology and markets, many
industries are in the midst of, or are approaching, major reconfigurations of
their fundamental architectures and the way companies capture value.1 The changes are well underway in
biopharma, nutrition products, health care and energy, where technologies and
distinct knowledge bases are changing and converging. Perhaps the most dramatic
example of such convergence is taking place in the booming space of
telecommunications, information technology, media and entertainment, which many
people now refer to as a single field, the “TIME” industries.2 The TIME industries are characterized not
only by the variety of new technological products and services being launched
at an ever-increasing pace but also by the surging complexity of their markets
and how companies win. As some companies have expanded their scope, others have
been forced to rethink and retool their strategies. In many ways, the TIME
example offers a useful model for managers in other industries where
convergence is less obvious. (See “Is Convergence Happening in Your Industry?”)
The amount of change that the telecommunications and related
industries have seen in recent years has been extraordinary. Back in 2001,
then-Nokia chairman Jorma Ollila said that “the mobile Internet should remain
‘under the control of the mobile industry, and not the computer makers.’”3 But that vision disintegrated when
Internet browsing became mobile. Ericsson and Siemens, once market leaders,
have disappeared from the mobile handset market. Other companies, such as
Apple, Google and Samsung, have increasingly dominated the smartphone
marketplace and appear to be shaping the future. (See “A Changing Landscape in
Mobile Handsets.”)
While the changes have opened up new business opportunities
for some companies, they have proved harmful to others. For example, Nokia’s
brand has suffered, while BlackBerry is struggling to compete against the
technical and financial power of giants such as Apple and Google. Despite its
early promise, AOL Time Warner was not able to leverage the expected synergies
at the intersection of Internet and media content.
With convergence, companies that were in seemingly unrelated
businesses can become rivals. Indeed, the day the mobile phone industry seized
upon a new way to design the user interface — beginning with Apple’s iOS,
followed by Google’s Android — everything else became outdated. Consumers
preferred ecosystems based on market-driven “apps” over services designed by
the telecom carriers. Players such as Nokia were caught in the changing
current. In September 2013, Microsoft announced that it will acquire Nokia’s
devices and services business.
Unfortunately, as Nokia and many other companies have
learned, turning a blind eye as the industry environment begins to change can
be a costly strategy. Managers need to recognize the different drivers and the
types of strategic choices that are available to them. Depending on what you
provide and your position in the new landscape, the opportunities and
challenges will be different.
Beyond the development of novel end-user devices,
infrastructures and services, convergence in the TIME industries has set in
motion reorganization and realignment of business functions across the entire
value chain. Whereas traditional “landline” carriers were once the only
providers of telephony services, today you can purchase voice and data services
from an array of IP-telephony providers. Convergence has put established
products and services at risk, forcing old-line companies to search for new
ways to survive.4
Convergence significantly affects the evolution of industry
sectors and severely disrupts a company’s capabilities.5 Managers can observe the weak signals of
convergence by analyzing patent data, scientific publications and
classification schemes.6 For example, they can see how Standard
Industrial Classification codes and patent filings overlap by monitoring
scientific publications.7However, it’s useful to have a framework for
identifying strategic priorities and plotting operational responses. Based on a
six-year study on convergence in the technology, information, media and entertainment
sectors and its implications for the key industry participants, we have
developed a framework that identifies four strategic pathways possible for
companies facing industry convergence. (See “About the Research.”) We describe
strategies companies have used and show how these strategies need to take into
account the long-term implications of convergence in order to help companies
sustain growth. We have also identified four important drivers of industry
convergence: technological advancement, open architectures and standards,
policy and regulatory reforms, and changes in customer expectations and
preferences. (See “The Drivers of Convergence.”)
Four Strategic Pathways
Companies have used four basic strategies to preserve and
capture value during convergence: technology pioneer, market attacker,
ecosystem aggregator and business remodeler. We will explore these pathways
here. (See “Guiding Principles for Implementing Convergence Strategies.”)
The Technology Pioneer
Technology pioneers provide superior technological solutions
that proactively contribute to the advancement of convergence between
industries. They enter the market early and make strategic choices about the
appropriate technological specialization as well as the control of intellectual
property.
New ventures following this path recognize that they need to
demonstrate the technological potential of their inventions and evaluate the
conditions for early customer adoption. Consider video and data delivery provider
Round Box, of Florham Park, New Jersey, which developed a novel way to stream
video over mobile networks. The founders saw their venture as a “mobile
broadcast convergence company,” with a technological solution for optimizing TV
streaming to mobile phones. They already had a prototype. The challenges — and
this is common among technology pioneers — were getting large carriers and
network providers to embrace their technology and protecting their intellectual
property. Successful technology pioneers we studied pursue these goals in
several ways.
They drive standards. One way to advance your
technology is to promote standardization activities within the industry. Kineto
Wireless, a private company in Milpitas, California, for example, is a leading
provider of IP-based over-the-top solutions to mobile companies. In advancing
Unlicensed Mobile Access technology, which ensured standardized approaches for
handsets and infrastructure equipment, Kineto Wireless established a market
foothold for its own technology solutions.
They become the technology of choice. Technology
pioneers need to become well recognized for their leadership, thus making it
more difficult for downstream players to promote substitute products. Mountain
View, California-based Thin Multimedia, which pioneered multimedia content
delivery through new transmission technologies for wireless devices and TV
sets, offers a good example. Although confident in the technological
superiority of their offering, the founders worried that mobile handset vendors
would enter this space and block other vendors’ entry. Technology pioneers are
in a favorable position to work with a variety of equipment manufacturers and
service providers simultaneously and can present themselves as independent.
They negotiate nonexclusive licenses. Technology
pioneers avoid locking themselves into exclusive agreements. A more effective
approach is to pursue multiple licensing agreements, as Kineto Wireless has
done, thereby increasing the odds that their technology is adopted across the
market. Although telecom operators have sought to acquire Kineto Wireless, the
company has so far resisted. “It is always a balancing act,” notes one manager,
“as all of your partners are also potential [mutual] competitors.”
Technology pioneers need to manage growth through internal
development while at the same time driving product adoption and protecting
their intellectual property. As one of the founders of Round Box noted, “We
need to be smart about whom we work with and how we can leverage their
connections, partners, expertise, without giving up our intellectual property.”
He added, “We cannot get too close to anyone, but close enough to everyone. We
need to keep neutrality, which gives us credibility.”
The Market Attacker
Market attackers try to exploit the commercial application
of advanced technologies and tap into revenue opportunities generated by the
fragmentation of well-established value chains.8 While different attackers vary in their
technological expertise, they have similar marketing challenges. In particular,
they must demonstrate the sustainability and profitability of their product
offerings.
ABOUT THE RESEARCH
This article is based on a six-year study on convergence in
the telecommunications, information technology, media and entertainment sectors
and the implications of that convergence for the management and innovation of
the key industry participants. Our findings come from a set of research studies
conducted with the support of ETH Zurich, the Scandinavian Consortium for
Organizational Research (SCANCOR) at Stanford University and various
participating companies between 2006 and 2012.ii We conducted a multiple-case study based
on multiple sources of evidence: archival data, industry publications, direct
observation and semi-structured interviews at 26 companies representing key
industry players in the converging telecom, IT, media and entertainment
industries.
Participants included both fast-growing, influential
entrepreneurial ventures and large, established companies, including Intel,
Nokia, Google, HP, Yahoo!, Apple, Cisco, Swisscom, Qualcomm, Tellme Networks,
Kineto Wireless, SAP, Logitech, eBay and France Télécom. The purpose of the
interviews was to learn how senior management teams recognized and responded to
the strategic challenges and business opportunities associated with industry
convergence. Out of these insights, we developed a framework for strategic
choices in convergence. The research was refined in an iterative process of
revisiting the cases and reviewing the relevant academic literature.Most market
attackers begin by identifying business opportunities with significant value.
This often involves some sort of arbitraging between the parts of the market
that have not converged yet and assembling pieces from previously distinct
fields in new products or services. For example, in the late 1990s, Good
Technology, a Sunnyvale, California-based software provider that focuses on
multiplatform enterprise mobility, began offering solutions that allowed users
to integrate their mobile email with their corporate email infrastructure
before such capabilities were available on BlackBerries and iPhones. Similarly,
Tellme Networks, of Mountain View, California, saw a market opportunity in
linking existing telephone infrastructure to the increasingly robust variety of
online content. Its idea was to allow customers to access information through a
voice portal using voice commands.
Once opportunities have been selected, market attackers
attempt to develop them quickly and nimbly. They collect early evidence on the
market’s reactions and the way the offerings impact the established rules of
the market. For example, Good Technology entered the market with a mobile
messaging product that was designed to compete against the existing offerings
of large, well-established telecom carriers. While many other companies had
similar ideas for bridging corporate networks and mobile email, Good benefited
by securing an early foothold.
A particularly effective strategy for market attackers is to
team up with an incumbent and collaborate vertically in the value chain. We
found that this often involves three steps.
They establish relationships. As an initial step,
market attackers sound out potential partners, sometimes using intermediaries.
This allows the attackers to iterate their value propositions and benefit from
the market experience of their partners. As a member of Tellme’s management team
recalled, the search process allowed them to “start looking into the other end
of the telescope for what the compelling experiences are and what that would
sound like for the enterprise; all of a sudden, it forced [us] to look
differently at who we were selling to.” The analysis led Tellme to shift focus
away from its initial consumer business and pursue corporate clients.
They consolidate the engagement model. The next step
for market attackers is to consolidate their engagement model to advance the development
of their offerings. Although they benefit from selling their applications in
the short term, demonstrating the long-term value of what they can offer a
partner is more important in many cases.9 Good Technology, for example, was able to
attract the interest of several mobile network carriers based on the beta
version of its email offering; based on what carriers saw, many decided to
license Good’s products rather than develop competing services internally.10 Collaborations between market attackers
and partner companies may expose asymmetries between the objectives and the
expected time frames of the organizations. Some partners may be looking for a
short-term solution, which may be inconsistent with the long-term growth
targets of the product developers. Therefore, it’s important for all sides to
think through the areas of overlap and potential differences in advance.
Attackers will want to make sure that in the event of premature termination of
the partnership, they are still able to make progress in developing their product.
They extend partnerships. In a third step, market
attackers frequently explore ways of extending their partnerships. This
involves drafting road maps for the partnership with different scenarios and
outcomes and weighing different paths to enhance scale and reach. The outcomes
can vary: Good set up an array of different partnerships with mobile carriers;
others, including Tellme, were ultimately acquired.
Given that the window of opportunity is narrow, market
attackers don’t have the luxury of taking a “wait-and-see” strategy. Instead,
they need to act quickly to find ways to grow their businesses. Companies
looking to defend themselves need to take this urgency into account when
developing their own strategies. While attackers are better positioned to
rapidly identify and capture new opportunities at the intersection of industry
boundaries, the choice of appropriate timing for entering markets is critical
for exploiting temporary advantage.11
The Ecosystem Aggregator
Ecosystem aggregators tend to be large companies that
attempt to exploit the market opportunities resulting from a wave of emerging
technologies. In contrast to young companies, they leverage their competences
and market experience to establish an “innovation platform” aimed at
complementary products and services. In doing so, they enhance the overall
value of the core offerings, taking advantage of what are often called network
effects.12
Network effects reinforce and extend the ecosystem
aggregator’s proprietary advantages, such as its installed user base. SAP, the
global provider of business application systems, offers a useful example. In
2003, SAP found itself at the crossroads between having a traditional, closed
business application software model and the rise of social media. In response,
it invited third-party developers and individual contributors to build on SAP’s
products, which in turn enhanced the overall attractiveness of the core
product.
Successful companies that follow this path can be thought of
as platform leaders.13 They drive technological development in
their ecosystem and derive advantages from their position within it, while at
the same time establishing adequate economic incentives for ecosystem partners
to invest in complementary innovations.14
THE DRIVERS OF CONVERGENCE
The drivers of industry convergence in the TIME sectors
included technological advancements, open architectures and standards, policy
and regulatory reforms, and changes in end-user demands. Each shaped the
process of convergenceiii and continues to play a significant
role in the future of the market.
First, technological advancements related
to digitalization and miniaturization resulted in a dramatic reduction of
infrastructure costs as well as in the development of innovative products. For
example, wireless networks and broadband access have become commodities, and
personal computers have become smaller, faster and more affordable. Further
developments are expected to integrate user experiences with devices.
Second, open architectures and standards have
accelerated convergence. Fifteen years ago, devices were largely running on
proprietary operating systems such as IBM DOS, Microsoft Windows and Mac OS. It
was difficult to run software across platforms, and few accessories were
interchangeable. Open-development architectures (such as Java), open-source
operating systems (such as Linux) and standard interfaces (such as SD memory
cards and USB connectors) reduced the complexity of creating software, services
and devices to run on different platforms. Today, anyone with basic skills can
develop a new app, accessory or service based on an open architecture.
Third, government policy and regulatory reforms resulted
in a widespread liberalization of telecommunications markets. In many
countries, regulators are embracing the next-generation network paradigm, which
treats all services within an IP-based network equally, as opposed to
differentiating between traditional telephony services or other forms of data
traffic.iv These new frameworks ease market access
for service providers, promote competition, increase market penetration and
encourage the adoption of new technologies. The reduction of entry barriers
allows companies to compete beyond their home turf and results in increasingly
fragmented value chains — as well as fundamental changes to traditional
industry structures.v Suddenly, companies need to have a
broader view on potential competitors.
Finally, changes in customer expectations and
preferences have forced companies to pursue product differentiation
and develop new services. Speed, mobility and portability directed product
development at most companies and substantially transformed the demand for
access and content. The end-user adoption rate of a new functionality — such as
touch-screen-based smartphones — created a new de facto standard and made it
difficult for players who did not offer those features. Had major mobile
industry players such as Motorola, Nokia or Sony Ericsson succeeded in
establishing a widely accepted mobile software ecosystem on their own, today’s
marketplace could be different. Instead, Apple and Google defined the direction
for the ecosystem of mobile applications.
Importantly, as ecosystem aggregators come to depend on the
complementary products and services offered by partners, the ecosystem
aggregators’ task is not just technical; it also involves ensuring that the
business relationships are mutually beneficial. For example, Intel worked hard
to capture the converging technologies underlying personal and mobile
computing. It avoided imitating the technologies promoted by aggressive young
competitors. Instead, Intel executives designed an integrated platform
consisting of chips and software for the mobile industry, allowing others to
create complementary products.
We found that ecosystem aggregators consistently utilize
orchestration processes to coordinate, sustain and influence the activities of
other ecosystem participants. These involve modularizing assets, ensuring
coherence and shaping mechanisms.
They modularize assets. Ecosystem aggregators we
studied modularized a set of assets that many players in the ecosystem could
leverage. The purpose was to establish the core platform infrastructure where
members could access and share tools, software and hardware components, and
other assets, thereby reducing design and development redundancies. For
example, Qualcomm, a semiconductor producer with a strong focus on wireless
telecommunications products and services, established an application
development platform that allows third parties to develop small programs, such
as games, for phones built on Qualcomm hardware. Platform providers can decide
which platform elements to keep closed and which ones are open for free usage.
By providing a software development kit, Qualcomm could direct third-party
developers and allocate tasks to a wider community of software developers.
They ensure ecosystem coherence. Aggregators can also
ensure ecosystem coherence and alignment between innovation activities and the
overall broader corporate strategy. They can accomplish this by determining
access points to the platform and how partners share knowledge with other partners.
In the developer forum, for example, the platform owner can moderate the
discussion topics and specifications of interfaces.
They shape capture mechanisms. Finally, ecosystem
aggregators design “capture mechanisms” that enable partners to secure value
from their efforts. For example, ever since Intel initiated its “Intel Inside”
campaign, other companies that wanted to build on Intel’s technology have been
able to participate in co-branding and joint marketing. The value capture is
not just monetary — it includes enhanced reputation.
Consistent with the pioneering work on platforms by scholar
Michael Cusumano and colleagues,15we found that a successful strategy for
companies in converging environments is to learn to become innovation platform
leaders. As Intel has shown, this involves engaging proactively in multiple
activities within the ecosystems, including financing the codevelopment of new
ventures and integrating them into the ecosystem.
The Business Remodeler
Companies with dominant positions in the market, a
significant customer base, strong brand equity and established networks can
become business remodelers. Such companies are well positioned to redefine the
core business model and the related technological base.
Traditionally, dominant industry players created value
through incremental innovations of their products and services. However,
convergence can test the viability of core technologies and products,
undermining the ability of such companies to perform. For example, between 2007
and 2010, formerly state-owned mobile telecom carriers in Europe saw average
revenue per user decline by about 20%.16 As one manager of Swisscom, in Bern,
Switzerland, observed, “It became clear that our core business is dying out —
and much faster than we had believed.”
Convergence between information technologies and
telecommunication has spawned new content services and applications — for
example, voice-over-IP (VoIP) technology — that replicate services offered by
traditional telecom carriers. As a result, Internet service providers have been
able to challenge their market dominance.
Business remodelers need to develop an understanding of why
value is shifting in their industry and identify the new sources of value. In
the TIME industries, incumbents realized that convergence didn’t just mean that
telephones, printers and music players were being replaced by more innovative
devices. Convergence was also creating fundamentally new patterns for how
people communicate, share information and access media content. Indeed, upon
realizing that its pay-per-minute business model was being threatened by free
VoIP service, Swisscom made a 180-degree strategy change and embraced VoIP. It
invested heavily in wireless Internet technologies and became a leading
provider of Wi-Fi hotspot infrastructure. In addition to allowing its customers
to surf the Web, customers can use Wi-Fi to make free VoIP calls, enabling the
company to increase customer loyalty and drive new traffic to its network.
Companies that successfully remodel their businesses pursue
many of the same strategies in terms of their relationships with customers and
their business models, including the following.
They build on customer relationships. Business
remodelers typically begin by building direct relationships with their existing
customer base. Swisscom, for example, was able to use its established position
in the cellphone service business to test the viability of a new Wi-Fi hotspot
service. Companies can also expand their customer base by creating new kinds of
offerings. With the ever-increasing digitization of media and content,
Hewlett-Packard faced important questions about the long-term future of its
home printing business. HP assembled a team to scrutinize its business model.
As one team member reflected, “Big companies have a problem, in that they force
everything into their traditional metrics. The traditional metric for [us] was,
how many pages are printed, how much ink is spent.” The analysis led to a new business:
Rather than focusing on printers, HP’s new model centers on selling printed
photos, which has been accelerated by the acquisition of Snapfish.
They let new business models coexist with old ones.
Initially, at least, business remodelers are happy to let their new business
models coexist with old models, with the understanding that if the new models
are successful they will probably begin to dominate. That’s what happened when
Apple launched its iTunes Music Store to support the iPod in 2003.17 iTunes turned out to be a huge success,
and Apple gradually shifted many of its activities to the online store. Today
Apple earns a significant share of its profits from sales of online music,
movies, software and mobile apps.
They use indirect means to reach customers. Finally,
business remodelers have opportunities to reach customers by circumventing
traditional channels and using the back door instead. Specifically, they can
use other industries as entry points, as Apple did with music content and
mobile communications services and as HP has done with photo sharing. With
industry convergence, customers may develop preferences for a particular company’s
products and services, thereby enabling it to sell to new market segments with
other existing technologies.
Making the Right Choices
Although successful new entrants and established companies
respond differently in the face of industry convergence, the choices managers
make are fortunately not etched in stone. They can be reversed. We found that
smart companies have been able to adopt different strategies and pursue
different paths depending on the circumstances. (See “Guiding Principles for
Implementing Convergence Strategies.”)
As the process of convergence advances and previously
unrelated technologies and markets become interrelated, companies have the
ability to change course. A technology pioneer might decide that it’s better to
become a market attacker. Such a switch makes sense when the technological
advantage has been exploited and the new challenge is shaping customer demands
and preferences. Google, for example, has been on the forefront of search
technologies to make information accessible in all formats and on all types of
devices for many years. By doing so, it has blurred the boundaries between
personal computers, mobile phones, collaborative tools and information
retrieval. But Google has also attempted to use its position to shape markets,
such as mobile phones.
As companies become older and larger, they need to rethink
the assumptions underlying their strategic choices. Yahoo! provides an
excellent example. Although it began as a technology pioneer offering
innovative services such as Web-based email, value in the Internet has been
shifting to other parts of the ecosystem, such as mobile applications. In
response, Yahoo! is now becoming a business remodeler, offering new services,
including Tumblr, the microblogging platform, which it acquired in June 2013.
Less mature, medium-sized companies face a wide range of
strategic choices. To avoid being stuck in the middle, they need to scrutinize
the benefits and risks of following any of the four strategies. At the same
time, they must remain agile so they can move from one strategic path to
another.
Of course, companies that pursue one strategic path have the
opportunity to hedge their bets by partnering with another company pursuing a
different strategy. For example, Kineto Wireless, which is a technology
pioneer, has collaborated with several network carriers to promote combined
fixed-line and mobile-line services. Among its partners is Swisscom, which is a
business remodeler engaged in trying to bring new value to customers.
Collaborations like these can generate value for both parties.
The process of convergence has greatly shaped the evolution
of the telecommunications, information technology, media and entertainment
industries, redefining the competitive landscape and presenting exceptional
opportunities for strategic innovation and entrepreneurial market entry. No
strategy is appropriate for every company. The right strategy will depend on a
company’s financial and organizational resources, technological base and market
knowledge. Whatever the circumstances, senior leaders need to understand the
nature of the strategic challenges they face and the long-term implications of
convergence.
Like surfing a big wave, riding the currents of
technological change can be challenging. Leaders who don’t stay focused on the
movement of the waves jeopardize the future of their company. A good surfer
knows how important it is to identify and monitor emerging waves before they
become big, and this analogy is telling.18 What starts small in a research
laboratory can gather force in a short period of time and wash away an
unprepared company. Technological waves are unpredictable and have the ability
to change the market dynamic before you know it.
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