Wednesday, August 28, 2013

The small start-ups are as vital as the stars



FT.com
August 27, 2013 4:37 pm
Luke JohnsonBy Luke Johnson

In the 19th and 20th centuries, Britain and the US were dynamic and open to novelty

Are entrepreneurs freaks of nature? Jim Clifton thinks so. He is the boss of research firm Gallup, and recently wrote about studies it is undertaking to find those especially talented individuals who can build the next Google, Ryanair or Bloomberg.

Gallup estimated that such “super-entrepreneurs” number just three out of 1,000 across a sample population. These are the risk-takers capable of founding so-called gazelle companies: the fastest-growing breakthrough organisations that create a high proportion of the new jobs and genuine innovation in an economy.

Identifying these prime movers is incredibly difficult. It is not like spotting brilliant footballers or pianists, where there are exams, courses, teachers and systems to discover and cultivate rare prowess. However, the skills displayed by the next Steve Jobs or Sir James Dyson are more complex and less well understood. They involve an ability to organise and promote a business, make a commercial idea concrete, hire and lead a team, generate sales and add value. There can be no academic qualification for attributes such as inventiveness or a spirit of enterprise.

It is a tragedy that the economics profession almost ignores this subject, and that business schools have done so little useful work to identify key character traits of the vital few. Venture capitalists would have much to gain by undertaking serious scientific studies into the personalities of winners in business. But they seem resigned to the idea that there are few rules or systems for finding the right ones to back.

Scott Shane, a prolific writer on entrepreneurship, postulates that genetic factors are powerful determinants of whether someone will develop a successful business. His book Born Entrepreneurs, Born Leaders suggests innate, inheritable predispositions really matter.

A survey of entrepreneurs at Northeastern University supports his view: 61 per cent of respondents said innate drive was the main reason they started a business: only 1 per cent said their higher education was a significant factor.

Not everyone buys the idea that a small number of extraordinary risk-takers are the ones who make a difference, however. Mass Flourishing , an important new book by Nobel prizewinner Edmund Phelps, suggests individuals matter much less than overall culture and social values. The subtitle of his text is “How grassroots innovation created jobs, challenge, and change”. His thesis is that most industrial discoveries were not pioneered by a few isolated visionaries, such as Henry Ford. Instead, he argues that progress was driven by huge numbers of citizens empowered to create and sell thousands of incremental improvements, from craftsmen and farmers to traders and factory workers. Together they generated an extraordinary period of prosperity, starting in the 1820s in Britain and petering out in the 1970s in the US.

Now, in the west, Professor Phelps believes there is a sense that the “glorious history of desire and dreams” has run out of steam. Unquestionably, there is an unholy alliance of conservatism and socialism that impedes economic and technological advances by resisting innovation.

In Britain, for instance, whether it is fracking, immigration, reforming the state or genetically modified foods, we suffer from neurotic environmentalists and Nimby elements who object to change and are deaf to rational arguments. They defy modernity, and seek to embrace what they imagine are “traditional” values. So they resent wealth creation, cling to bloated welfare and pension systems, resist new developments and so forth. By contrast, Prof Phelps shows how in the 19th and 20th centuries Britain and the US, among other nations, were dynamic and open to novelty – and that the good life was surprisingly inclusive then.

I agree with him that all entrepreneurship is important, not just the famous names. I also think that government, industry, regulators and institutions must be more venturesome if a nation is to compete successfully in a global marketplace. Meanwhile, educators, mentors, universities and philanthropists should explore much more deeply why certain entrepreneurs have such an impact, how to breed more of them, and how to encourage surroundings that will enable them to flourish.

lukej@riskcapitalpartners.co.uk
The writer runs Risk Capital Partners, a private equity firm, and is chairman of StartUp Britain

Jenkins: Only Bill Gates Can Change Microsoft

  • The Wall Street Journal
Retirement was not the fate many customers likely would have chosen for Microsoft's Steve Ballmer. Something unpleasant involving wolverines would have been more like it—especially if you were among the countless corporate foot soldiers recently required to upgrade an underpowered company-issued laptop to Windows 7 because of Microsoft's withdrawal of support for its long-lived XP.
It was once possible to gaze on Windows with admiration. The complexities it tackled on our behalf were awesome. It was churlish to complain about the occasional blue screen or long boot-up times.
But sometimes a reality only needs to be stated out loud: The joy of Android and Apple devices lies not just in those devices themselves, but in the fact that they allow us to perform computing tasks without %^$# Windows.
Going forward into the post-Ballmer era, the problem for Microsoft is not that it stuck with Windows too long. Businesses live for such enduring, money-spinning franchises.

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Business World columnist Holman Jenkins on Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer’s retirement, and what the company’s stock price says about CEO compensation. Photo credit: Associated Press.
The problem is not that Microsoft didn't beat Facebook, Google and Apple at their own games. Other capable and lucky entrepreneurs exist. To expect Microsoft to extend its dominance of personal computing into the era of ubiquitous computing is like expecting Ford to dominate auto making in the 2010s the way it did in the 1910s.
The real problem lies in how Microsoft stuck to Windows. Mr. Ballmer's legacy for Microsoft is not just a stagnant stock price, but an increasingly exploitative attitude toward its core Windows user in pursuit of overwrought strategic quests (the ultimate source of the Windows 8 debacle).
The final fault, though, lies with Bill Gates, who salted his company with the "defend and extend" zero-sum paranoia that constitutes its central strategic impulse. Think back to the company's Netscape panic, when Microsoft saw the browser as a mortal strategic threat and embroiled itself with a reciprocally purblind Justice Department. What did the Web really mean for Microsoft? It ended up giving the world a reason to buy a lot more Microsoft PCs.
Blaming Mr. Gates may be unfair. The zero-sum mentality (dressed up as talk of "network effects") is a recurrent temptation of the entire tech sector. Witness today's talk of winner-take-all mobile ecosystem wars, in which Microsoft is seen as doomed. Here's what the world really looks like:
image
AP
Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer and founder Bill Gates at the company's annual meeting of shareholders last November in Bellevue, Wash.
How many people (as your columnist does) use a Windows laptop to stock their Netflix queue or Amazon or HBOGo or YouTube watchlist—then use another device to direct the video to a screen? In your columnist's household, we consume video on a Kindle, an iPhone, a PC, a MacBook, or using a Roku box, Xbox, Wii or a Panasonic smart TV. And delivering this video is a whole host of upstream router and server devices and software, in which undoubtedly Microsoft and many others have a piece.
This is the future. The zero-sum war of ecosystems is not coming. There will not be one ring to rule them all.
Seen this way, Mr. Ballmer's reaction to the iPhone should have been to clap his hands in delight and dispatch his Microsofties to think up wonderful apps for the wonderful new device. And the last thing Microsoft needs now is his parting gift, a reorganization aimed at mimicking Apple just as Apple's peculiar "functional" (rather than traditional corporate "divisional") structure is making less and less sense for Apple.
The Ballmer "One Microsoft" plan, which apparently will proceed in his absence, is to produce a "family of devices and services for individuals and businesses."
"Family" is the worrisome word. Microsoft doesn't need a "devices and services" family. It needs to live in a "devices and services" world, snatching opportunities as it sees them.
Happily, there comes a moment when the solution to strategy-mania is not more strategy but corporate governance reform—a lesson that applies also to Apple but comes sadly too late for BlackBerry. Microsoft should take its still-gushing winnings from the desktop age and direct them to shareholders in the form of a big dividend hike. Let new investors take the risks of the next phase.
To the extent that Microsoft's brainy engineers and intrinsic competitive strengths suggest promising new investments, undertake these via joint ventures and spinoffs with outsiders who will be eager to finance good ideas without being distracted by the Windows "defend and extend" monomania on which so much shareholder wealth has already been squandered.
But now we come to a final problem. For good reason Lou Gerstner's name has been on every lip in the wake of Mr. Ballmer's announcement. Mr. Gerstner saved IBM by making the ruthless decisions about what IBM would no longer do.
Microsoft cannot have a Lou Gerstner with a Bill Gates still on the premises. As long as Microsoft's founder is around, only Mr. Gates will be able to inflict on Microsoft the change it needs.
A version of this article appeared August 28, 2013, on page A13 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Only Bill Gates Can Change Microsoft.

Nissan Expects to Market Self-Driving Cars by 2020

  • The Wall Street Journal


Japanese Auto Maker Pledges to Offer Vehicles That Can Operate Autonomously

IRVINE, Calif.—Nissan Motor Co. plans to offer cars with self-driving technology by 2020, a senior company executive said on Tuesday.
"Nissan Motor Co. pledges that we will be ready to bring multiple affordable, energy efficient, fully autonomous-driving vehicles to the market by 2020," Executive Vice President Andy Palmer said during a presentation in Southern California.
image
Nissan
Japan's Nissan outlined coming technology that lets a car slow to a stop at a red light and even park itself.

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Nissan is one of several major auto makers working to develop cars that can drive themselves. Silicon Valley search giant Google Inc. also is working on autonomous driving technology.
The push to perfect cars that can drive themselves, all the time or part of the time, is aimed in part at reducing the number of accidents caused by driver errors.
Mr. Palmer said Nissan will build by 2014 a proving ground to test its autonomous vehicle systems.
Nissan demonstrated on Tuesday how a prototype self-driving Leaf electric car could use a combination of laser guidance systems, radar sensors and cameras to navigate around a track with various obstacles.
The car could detect a red light and slow to a stop. When a dummy pedestrian jumped in front of the car, it automatically swerved to the left to avoid a collision. When a test driver engaged the turn signal, the car turned right to simulate exiting a freeway.
The Nissan prototypes don't use a rotating device on the roof, as some of Google's prototype self-driving cars do. Instead, Nissan engineers said, their sensors are built into the car.
"Most of the technology solutions are in sight. The challenge is not…the technology," Mr. Palmer said at the presentation Tuesday. "The big step is the regulatory framework."
Beginning in 2020, Mr. Palmer said Nissan plans to roll out autonomous driving technology and make it available across its model lineup within two product generations, or roughly between eight and 10 years thereafter.
image
AFP/Getty Images
Nissan said its engineers have been working on self-driving car technology for years alongside researchers from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford, Oxford, Carnegie Mellon universities and the University of Tokyo.
Nissan will work with hardware suppliers to develop its technology, Mr. Palmer said.
"The question is how deep do they get into the software, which is the critical challenge. Mr. Palmer said the company isn't working with Google on its self-driving car technology, although it does work with Google on other projects. "I can't preclude working with Google," Mr. Palmer said.
Nissan Chief Executive Carlos Ghosn was expected to attend Tuesday's session, but members of his staff said an unexpected issue forced him to cancel his appearance. They didn't elaborate.
More vehicles already offer technology that automates certain driving functions. Currently available cruise-control systems can automatically slow and speed up to maintain a set distance behind cars ahead in a lane. Brake systems that automatically stop a car to avoid a collision are available as are systems that can keep a car in a lane.
Among the technical challenges for auto makers seeking to develop fully autonomous driving are developing low cost, reliable sensors that will "see" around a car and guide it along its route.
Nissan's goal of developing a self-driving car for sale by 2020 is consistent with forecasts from technology and other industry executives that the hardware and software could be ready within that time frame.
But the most difficult obstacles to marketing fully self-driving cars could be legal and regulatory.
A few U.S. states have passed laws making it legal to test self-driving cars on public roads, but before high volume sales to consumers can begin, auto makers, regulators and insurers will have to sort out who would be liable if a self-driving car gets in an accident.
Write to Joseph B. White at joseph.white@wsj.com
A version of this article appeared August 28, 2013, on page B3 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Nissan Pledges Self-Driving Cars by 2020.

Write Your Business Case as a Story

August 28, 2013

HBR's Management Tip of the Day


If you’ve been charged with developing the case for a new project at your company, imagine you’re telling a story. The narrative starts, as all good ones do, with a problem. This is the business need you’re trying to solve. Then, identify the characters: the stakeholders who have the authority to approve or reject your business case; the beneficiaries who stand to gain from your proposal; and the subject-matter experts who will clarify how to solve the problem. Next you’ll consider alternatives for meeting the business need—different ways your story might play out. After making the best choice, you’ll create a very high-level project plan. This is the plot. Then estimate the costs and benefits to determine the return on investment (ROI), which is the satisfying end. Remember this isn’t a mystery novel—your story needs to be clear and easy to understand. 

Adapted from the HBR Guide to Building Your Business Case.

With Labor Costs Easing, U.S. Companies Invest Less in Technology

August 28, 2013

HBR's The Daily Stat


American labor costs have been so well contained of late that the proportion of nonfarm business revenue going toward wages, salaries, and benefits hit a record low 57.9% in the first quarter of 2012, the most recent period for which figures are available, says the Wall Street Journal. A decade earlier, the share was 62.7%. But when labor costs are low, companies are less willing to invest in labor-saving technology; the 10-year period ended in 2011, the latest on record, was the weakest for tech investment since World War II, the Journal says.

Amazon brings its ads into mobile apps



FT.com

August 27, 2013 7:29 pm
By Barney Jopson in New York

Amazon is strengthening its presence on mobile apps by offering developers incentives to carry advertisements for its products in their applications, as online shopping via smartphones booms.
Under a programme announced on Tuesday, app owners can earn a commission fee of up to 6 per cent from Amazon when users buy a product that they have promoted on their app.

The move highlights how mobile devices have become the fiercest battle ground in ecommerce, but it is also a reminder of how Amazon – famed for its pioneering inventions – has been slow to innovate in the area.

Sucharita Mulpuru, an analyst at Forrester Research, said: “I would have thought that Amazon would have done this two or three years ago.”

Given that website owners have been able to earn money by posting Amazon advertisements since the late 1990s, she said: “How hard is it to take what you’re already doing and apply it to apps, which are the fastest-growing way people are accessing content?”

The Amazon programme is for apps that run on devices using Google’s Android operating system, including Amazon’s Kindle Fire tablet. The online retailer is also rumoured to be developing a smartphone of its own.

Ms Mulpuru said most app developers had “eyes full of gold” as they looked for additional ways to make money, but added that not every app would fit naturally with the ability to buy products with one-click from Amazon.

Amazon suggested its new plan would appeal to developers whose apps specialise in areas such as nutrition or fitness, as they could choose to promote vitamins or sports equipment available on Amazon.

Rebecca Madigan of the Performance Marketing Association, which represents businesses that host online adverts, said Amazon’s move was “fantastic” for developers, but added: “I think [Amazon is] playing catch-up with the rest of the world.”

She said online advertising businesses such as Commission Junction and Rakuten’s Linkshare had enabled their corporate clients to have product advertisements incorporated by app developers for at least a year.

Amazon said app developers had three options: they could promote a single item, showcase a category of goods on Amazon, or bundle the purchase of physical goods with the purchase of digital goods – for example, giving a customer an online version of a board game when they buy an old-fashioned one.

Mike George, vice-president of Amazon’s app store, said: “Developers now have the ability to create an even deeper connection between their app and the products customers value and purchase through Amazon.com.”

Analysts say shopping on mobile devices is a big part of Amazon’s growth. Amazon’s sales increased by 22 per cent year on year in the past quarter, but it made a $7m net loss that underlined questions about its long-term profitability.

Separately on Tuesday, Twitter said it had appointed its first head of commerce – Nathan Hubbard, an entertainment executive – as it tries to turn its social network into a new way for online retailers to reach consumers.

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

JEFF BEZOS IS HERE TO SAVE YOUR SOUL (WELL, NEWSPAPER)! WHO CARES?

Fast Co.


THE MILLENNIALS AND "NANOLENNIALS" ARE COMING! BUT WILL THEY STOP WITH THE SELFIES LONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE WASHINGTON POST AND THE NEW REPUBLIC SURVIVE? HERE ARE FOUR TIPS ON HOW TO SELL CHANGE TO THE DOUBLE-SOY-LATTE GENERATION.
BY: ERIC BOVIM


The Great Man theory is in full effect these days ever since Jeff Bezos scooped upThe Washington Post.
The Old Media literati herald Bezos as the Great Savior of print journalism. The notion of heroes shaping history, advanced by Thomas Carlyle in the 1840s, appears to be validated in this epoch of tech billionaires.
But it hardly began with Bezos.
For many months, the trickling of the Great Men of Mt. Palo Alto into earthly places like Washington, D.C., has become a political story. Silicon Valley needs something from Washington--and Washington sure loves the succor of hi-tech money.
The zeitgeist is that anyone with designer jeans, a sports car, and a few billion has the right stuff to reboot the tired East Coast systems, politics, and businesses. It’s all an Idealism versus Goliath swagger that plays well at the Big Sur wedding scene, yet feels totally alien to the humanoids inhabiting the Beltway.
Enter Chris Hughes. At 29, he is a leading man in this freshly minted generation of wunderkinds. The Harvard roommate of Mark Zuckerberg, Hughes--rich and literary--deployed his fortune in March 2012 to buy . . . well, a musty artifact of old media, The New Republic. When he writes last week on the Bezos/Wapo deal, that Palo Alto zeal comes through:
I’m guessing that Bezos understands an old truism: brands matter. The wonder and magic of institutions like the Post or The New Republic is their history--their stories track the American story. . . . In fact, brands matter more now than when Don Graham’s grandfather bought the Post nearly a hundred years ago . . .

I’m rooting for Hughes to restore The New Republic to its former glory. On this point, however, I am afraid he is wrong. Brands today are far more at risk of failing--and failing fast--than they ever were a hundred years ago, especially media brands.
Once upon a time, brands were stalwarts: your grandfather bought General Motors stock, it steadily climbed in value, and he eventually retired on it. Heck, my 107-year-old great grandfather still lives off the pension he earned when he retired 48 years ago!
This might be the stuff of legend in this digital age. The staying power of brands is an evanescent, fragile thing. Business exists now in a perpetual state of disruption. That Darwinian disruption puts every brand on notice.
Hughes should know better. Don Graham, the Posts’ now former owner, notoriously turned down the opportunity to be an early investor in Mr. Hughes’ and Mark Zuckerberg’s little venture called Facebook. The Washington Post has been a depreciating asset ever since, a case study in failure to change with the times.
Indeed, Bezos bought a venerable brand. But reputation hardly guarantees future profitability.
For newspapers, the future belongs to crowdsourcers--the Mighty Millennials. And they aren’t like the rest of us. A cup of Maxwell House, a shave, and the pages of thePost were enough for most folks in D.C. 20 years ago. But their offspring? These double soy latte habitués are skimming Mashable at Starbucks, earbuds dangling.
Millennials’ radically unique consumptive habits are going to wreak havoc on newspapers in coming years. According to the Pew Research Center, from 2010 to 2012, the percentage of 18-24-year-olds reading news on social media websites increased from 12% to 34%. Not surprisingly, fewer than 13% picked up a print newspaper in 2012.
For a generation that speaks in hashtags and posts “selfies” with impunity, I expect that even with a little more time in the oven of life, print news will seem as contemporary of a communication medium as Morse code.
Amid perpetual business disruption and Millennials, the brand is not an immune system to ensure a company’s survival.
For the remaining brands that still have their wits about them:
  1. Realize that your future profits will come from these Millennials. 
  2. Know that their children--let’s call them Nanolennials--will seem even more unusual to you and me. Prepare for radical change in consumptive habits. 
  3. Preemptively disrupt your disruptors. Email killed the Postal Service. 3-D printing could hurt Amazon.com. What are the mega trends that pose mortal threats to your business model? 
  4. Appoint a full-time chief innovation officer whose job it is to see around corners, spot trends, and build strategic plans to reach the next generation of consumers.

Innovation is evolution. To stay relevant, media brands must reinvent themselves with technology. Raised on social media, Millennials want to engage, and not simply be passive readers.
So how might The Washington Post launch micro campaigns to publish local photography from readers using Instagram? Would a daring newspaper ever consider breaking news through a video on its website? Could NPR and Spotify collaborate to reach younger audiences?
If heroes shape history, then the brand messiahs of the future will be cliff-diving risk takers, mashup artists, and unabashed change agents. Whether they will hail from Mountain View or Mississippi is anybody’s guess.
--Eric Bovim is managing director at McBee Strategic, an advisory firm in Washington, D.C. Follow him on Twitter at @bovim.
[Image: Flickr user Chase Elliott Clark]
August 21, 2013 | 6:16 AM